Over at TPM this morning, Josh Marshall returns from a well-deserved vacation to weigh the prospects of the varied GOP presidential hopefuls as they sprint---or limp--towards the finish line in Iowa and New Hampshire. And as it turns out, he still likes Mitt Romney's chances to capture the Big Prize next summer.
The Baron respectfully disagrees, for reasons I'll enumerate in a moment.
First, let me say just how personally indebted I am to Josh for all his work at TPM the past seven years. He's a terrific political writer, has a wonderfully dry and sardonic sense of humor, is a keen judge of journalistic talent, and his takes on the bloviating sturm und drang emanating from Washington and the campaign trail are almost always spot-on. I've been reading his commentaries daily from practically the very first day he went online with his site, and he's one of the handful of folks---Digby, Kos, and Glenn Greenwald being some of the others---who inspired me to start up my own blog.
That said, the primary problem I have with Josh's argument here is his analysis of Huckabee, who I think he dismisses too quickly:
. . . as we're now seeing day after day with Huckabee, despite the affable manner and the politics that are gaining him huge support within the GOP's evangelical base, the dude just has way too much baggage to get him to the nomination---letting a bunch of anti-Clinton whacks convince you to let a serial rapist out of prison, all sorts of completely whacked views, wild unpreparedness on foreign policy. And they haven't even gotten to truly nutball ideas he's for like the 'Fair Tax'. I'm not saying it can't happen. But I just think Huckabee's got too much baggage on too many fronts.
Perhaps. But we are now only a matter of days until the first caucuses, and only a few weeks until the first round of big-state primaries, and as of right now, all of the momentum is in the Huckster's corner. And as Josh certainly knows, momentum is only as important its timing. Three months ago, the game was all Rudy all the time, but as noted elsewhere, his support nationwide appears to be cratering among GOP voters---not surprising, given his myriad peccadillos, moderate social views, and his near-catatonic reliance on the words "September 11" as a substitute for any coherent foreign policy position. He's still ahead in some of the delegate-rich states, but his numbers aren't tracking in the right direction anywhere right now. I think that a lot of people have simply gotten tired of his hectoring one-note campaign delivery and are mentally tuning him out.
Mitt, too, looks from this corner to be in trouble. He's dumped a ton of money into buying an organzation in Iowa, and if he should lose to Huck there, then lose to a fast-charging McCain in his own backyard, what does he have left to hang his hat on to project himself as a candidate who can "win" anywhere? He's getting clobbered in South Carolina (no surprise; could a Mormon win any Southern primary?), and if he's hoping to pull off a big-state coup a few weeks from now in, say, Florida or California, he's running a distant second there too.
Given this scenario, what's the public perception to be? He can't win a swing state, he can't win a Southern state, and he can't win a big-ticket state. How long do you think it will take before the Sunday morning pundocrats start using words like "underachiever" to describe him?
Mind you, I'm not saying he won't get his share of delegates, and he still does have time for a comeback. And given his personal wealth, he doesn't need to panic right away if his contributions dry up. But right now, he's sorta looking like the Yankees did last season---talented, competitive, and richer than God, but they hit their stride a little too soon, and when the playoffs rolled around, they got whacked.
Now don't get me wrong---everything Josh states about Huckster is absolutely true. Once you get past the small-town charm of the man, there are quite a few loose screws clanging around inside his head. And in a sane and rational political environment, he wouldn't have a ghost's chance of getting out of the primaries with anything but a handful of delegates. But to the greatest extent, the 2008 GOP primary campaign has not been conducted by men urging sane and rational policies, and by and large they are certainly not appealing to sane and rational voters. And I think that's why we can't count Huck out. And if he pulls off the improbable, and captures Iowa---and for the record, I think he'll do exactly that---all the money and grass-roots support that will come flooding in after the geniuses in TV BobbleheadLand remind us of the potency of a "Southern evangelical who can win outside the South" . . . well, this will make him all that much more formidable in the weeks ahead.
Now, the Baron's not a betting man, but he'd be willing to wager Josh a jumbo mug of his preferred caffeinated frothy that in two months' time, we are looking at a GOP field that shakes down like this, from top to bottom:
Huckabee, frontrunner
McCain, the tortoise
Rudy, still in free-fall
Mitt, living off his ATM card
Paul, raking in the dough if not the votes
Freddie, RIP
Tancredo, RIP
Hunter, RIP but hanging around through California (noblesse oblige)
Alan Keyes, nominated by the Lord already, awaiting coronation
Again, in deference to Josh, this is not a logical order at all. But today's GOP activist base is not populated by logical men. In many ways, the entire party has existed in a state of full-blown dementia since 9/11, and for that reason alone, I'd say all bets are off the smart money.
Also too, I think what we are seeing here in the Huck Phenomenon is a kind of grass-roots revolt by a voter base that the GOP has so painstakingly courted---and cynically manipulated---for the past 30 years. In many ways, it is reminiscent of what happened to the party at the Cow Palace in 1964. Like the Birchers and McCarthyites (the fundamentalists of their time) who felt they'd been burned too many times by softies like Eisenhower, the modern-day fundies have been burned (in their minds) by too many Republican pols who might appoint some high-profile judges to their liking, but who otherwise won't push their social agenda too aggressively. Now, in Huckabee, they have one of their own---or at least the perception of it, and they will turn out the votes, and the money for him given half a chance. Think of Huck as a latter-day Huey Long by way of Trinity Broadcasting, and his sudden popularity starts to make a little more sense. And like Barry Goldwater in 1964, I think Huckabee is going to be the party's presidential nominee in Minneapolis.
Look at it this way: when you've basically driven away what few moderate voters you had over the past six years, who's left to vote in your primaries---and attend your convention---but the crazies?
---Vitelius